Israel: The New Equation of the Middle East

Israel: The New Equation of the Middle East

Introduction:

One of the most important events in the modern Middle Eastern history is the establishment of Israel, and its consequences of Arab Israel conflicts. “The promised land” remain the validity point for Israel's every de- humanization and destruction of human security in the region, and for Palestinians, the rights of self determination has been the core of their historic struggles against Israeli illegal occupation. Moreover, the former- Israeli has some powerful allies like US and European Union, and they had been trying to solve this decades long crisis, but haven't succeeded yet. Since its beginning, Israel versus Arab conflicts created equations after equations in Middle Eastern politics, and after trump administration a new political equation is going to see the Middle East and the whole world. However, in this essay we will delve into the how to analyze the nature of equation in Middle East since the beginning of Israel to present days,  specifically we will try to understand the new equation in details, and will conclude by remarking what is going to happen in the future Middle Eastern politics because of Israel. 

Understanding Middle Eastern Political Equation:

Today the Middle East is the world's most turbulent region, where conflicts, rage and Interests of internal and external actors collided. The current political configuration of the Middle East is defined by the fact that it has a number of identical centers of power with profound inconsistencies in political, religious and ideological  spheres. The crisis in Syria is multi-dimensional based on sectarian contradictions and as well as social inequality. Therefore, foreign actors supported these different groups. The situation is similar in Yemen but the sectarian factors does not play decisive roles here in Yemen. In addition, tribal conflicts are also prominent in Middle East. So, Wars are becoming more bitter and protracted due to activities of terrorist groups. Like ISIS And Al Nusra Front.

Many conflicts are evolving to new  stages, and some of  them are susceptible to the influence of external actors, such as Israel versus Palestine and Hezbollah (USA & Iran), Syrian Civil War (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syrian Government, and Rebels), Yemeni Civil War (Rebels, Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia). The United States is the most important external force in the Middle East. Relations between the US and particular countries often determined the regional dynamics. Despite growing contradictions, there are some examples of diplomatic success in the region. For instance, in 2006, Iraq and Syria return their relation after 20 years, and in 2016, strategic alliance between Iran and Turkey took shape. The Russian role in the Middle East is often noted, because Moscow facilitated in finding common grounds with all the major  actors. Western countries and Israel, the United state’s principal ally in the Middle East, are active in the region too.  In the one hand they fight against terrorism like Russia and Iran do, and on the other Hand, by the damaging civil infrastructures and encouraging Kurdish separatism, they destabilize the situation in Middle East. The region is going through a painful transformation period, and its result will determine the new balance of powers and rules of the Middle East equations.

Israel and Middle East Political Equation

Israel’s relations with Middle East has always been  in suspicious and complexity. For 70 years, Israel has strategically been trying to overcome almost every difficulties faced in the Middle East and updated  her national security mechanism to survive in hostile environments. In almost four or five decades since its establishment, Israel developed her national security measures in more conventional ways. But the length of traditional military threats does not exist anymore at present, and so may not in future.  Because its diplomatic relations with Jordan and Egypt and destabilizing the powerful regimes like Iraq and Syria into crisis replace the fear of conventional military threat to Israel. But Israel is not happy with it since traditional threats have been modify it into a new paradigm- transnational threats. These transnational or supranational threats are two kinds for Israel:

1.           Possibility of nuclear development by Iran

2.           High trajectory and high destructive fire arsenals of its surrounding foes.

From beginning, Israel has been trying in putting a diplomatic pressure or other means to stop Iran from developing their nuclear project. Iran nuclear deal with permanent 5 make the situation for Saudi Arabia, Israel and other regional actors more suspicious about the future of Iran nuclear project. The second threats are more significant for Israel’s national security. Because here are the threats of high trajectory fire arsenals are not only from states like Syria and Iran but also from a trust national and state sponsored organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas. 

Israel has limited choices of making her both national and foreign policy because of Middle Eastern System. She is surrounded by hostiles states. Post revolutionary Iran remain antagonist to Israeli existence.  Though she has relations with Turkey, but economic relations, not diplomatic, let alone strategic partner. Erdogan’s Turkey remain a harsh critics and strong opposition to Israel. Israel has a stable relations with GCC states except Qatar. Besides Qatar’s present development of relations with Iran, funding to Hamas and Muslim brotherhood make other GCC states to put sanctions over Qatar.  So, to Israel, it become obvious in making relationship with GCC, and its allies Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Jordan.

Saudi Arabia has been a supporter of Israel because Saudi’s ambitions of regional hegemony is also deteriorated by Iran’s malign behavior in the region.   Besides, both Israel and Saudi Arabia are the major political allies of America in the region. This artificial states are largely depended upon external forces for their survival in the region, and the USA facilitates this view. Consequently, both Israel and Saudi Arabia supported every US's policies in the Middle East, if some policies are against their interests like Iran nuclear Deal their powerful lobbies put pressure on America. And Jordan plays a double role in Middle Eastern issues. In the on hand Jordan remain in Israeli security umbrella during the crisis of Iraq and Syria and also the terrorist groups over there. on the other hand Jordan supported a peaceful solution to said  Palestinian crisis. Jordan pressured Israel that Israel need give full status of Palestinian statehood and supporter  the Palestinians struggle of self-determination.

Israel and Middle East New Equation

The new political equation in the Middle East surround on Israel’s are going to happening for many reasons. Among the reasons we will try to discuss in details of three significant causes (Jerusalem, Iran Nuclear Deal, and Normalization relations with Arabs) that will create the new political situation in Middle East and also for Israel.

Jerusalem, the ancient city lies at the very heart of Israel Palestine conflicts, and the world has seen   many times how a small changes on the ground of Jerusalem can quickly lead to outrage and violence. The most Israelis see Jerusalem as their “eternal and undivided capital”, Palestinians in contrast said East Jerusalem as their capital, and that’s part of  a long standing conflict as well as a long standing formula for peace that is known as the two state solution. Basically, the idea of the two state solution is that an independent Palestine state would be created alongside Israel- along the boundaries that existed before 1967, it is also  declared through the UNSC Resolution.

For decades, the international community has been saying that any changes in the status of Jerusalem can only be done through peace negotiations. But the President Donald Trump did declare Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital unilaterally .Trump said this decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel would help bring peace and security to the region. But there has been widespread condemnation of his unilateral decision, and protests in Cairo, West Bank, Gaza and other places. Both the Palestine militant groups Hamas in Gaza and Iran backed group Hezbollah in Lebanon have called for another intifada or uprising.

The decision of trump hit over its allies. European powers, The Arab League, and other members of the UN Security Council including Russia and China all pushed back against such decisions and so has the Pope. The US led coalition has driven ISIS to the brink of defeat in Iraq and Syria, but trump decisions could allow the extremist groups to further conflicts. The US needs military and security support from regional allies such as Iraq and Jordan for Israel and Saudi Arabia, but this allies have also warned that Trump’s decision could unleash further conflicts. This potential political threats of the decision followed between Arab nations and the USA, could facilitate the growing influence of Iran in the region including its encouragement of resistance  groups.

Iran Nuclear Deal was thought as one of the greatest success in diplomatic negotiations since 20th century. The deal is also known as joint comprehension plan of action   (JCPOA) developed after a decades long negotiations with Transatlantic allies vs Iran, though China and Russia also be the part of the deal. The deal Provided opportunities to Iran to gain a great access to global economy. In favor, Iran would expel in every and development related nuclear proliferation. But after two years, the president of USA Donald Trump unilaterally withdraw from the deal on acquisition some nuclear deal provisions, but which provisions? trump haven't mentioned that yet.

From the beginning of this deal the greater  US allies of the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia and Israel were not happy with it. Because the very existence of Iranian military over the reason from Iraq to Yemen to Syria and Iranian backed militia groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas, and strategic partners like Syria, Iraq and Turkey are negative equations for Israel and Saudi Arabia. Besides in US, powerful lobbies from this states pressured on US government to withdraw from this. Both Israel and Saudi understood that nuclear deal would facilitate Iran to develop further its military presence over the region and that is going to hurt the interest of the states.

Moreover the trump administration provided a strong economic sanction over Iran, and every states who are going to business with Iran, and termed Iran as the  biggest rogue states in the Middle East equation. These sanctions and the withdrawal create tensions in transatlantic relations, and declined the legacies of the  US commitment in world stages. The USA withdrew from the deal but its European allies didn't because European Union prescribed proliferation of weapons and unavailability of natural resources as the security threat to its own  existence. So it assured to Iranian government that they would preserve the provisions of the treaty and give the facilities prescribed in the treaty. Moreover the Iranian government termed the USA as a false representative and threatened it would enrich its nuclear development level if the sanctions were tougher again. Both Saudi Arabia and Israel welcomed Trump administration of such demanded decision. 

Normalization of Israeli relationship with its Arab neighbors is another important factors in the Middle East politics. Four Arab states UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco normalizes their ties with regional  power Israel in the latter half of 2020. Scholars on Middle Eastern politics are predicted on future shifting in structure of the Middle East  and lasting the threats from both states and non-state actors in the region. Arab countries are going to show this significant changes among states relations. Interestingly, this process has patronized and forcible through states officials, a great gap popular consensus is obvious throughout the region, and one statistics showing about 93% of these four Arab states ordinary people are never wanted such normalization of their  relations with Israel. Scholars find at least three reasons for such normalization of relations between Arabs and Israel namely regional commercial ties, rise of Iran, and decline of pan Islamism and Pan-Arabism.

Basically the ties between Arabs and Israel has facilitated by President Donald Trump, because on last November US election, he tried to show his success in Foreign policy by disclosure of their long time relations. Whether some are predicted this normalization as a turning or winning points for Israel to underscore the struggle of Palestinians, some are said that this ties may not much change the existing system. Those who are disagreed about Israel landslide victory, they emphasized that these Arab neighbors of Israel has never been a great players in Middle Eastern political equations. These Sheikhdoms even participants in a little against Israel compare to Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan. Though Egypt and Jordan normalize their relations with Israel for Sinai and West Bank respectively, but they have always been supported Palestine cause in their bilateral relations with Israel. Those scholars pointed out that even Saudi Arabia shall normalize its relations Israel, it is not going to change the overall scenario because for many reasons Saudi Arabia has lost its importance domestically, regionally and globally.  Therefore, the presence of these normalized states will be very limited as they are not the central in regional crisis and regional co-operation as well.

Conclusion: The Future of Middle Eastern Political Equations

During 20th century, every decisions on establishing  Pan-Arabism and stand against Israeli illegal occupations were undertaken by regional power like Iraq, Syria and Egypt. Because of Iraq and Syrian crisis, the future structure of the Middle East is going to frame around Iran and Turkey.  Scholars believe that if there won't any devastating wars in the Middle East,  these two regional powers will frame Middle Eastern political equation for coming decades.  So it is not the case that those who think that the normalization of relations between the Arab States with Israel is changing the geopolitics of Middle East crisis or conflict or that something very revolutionary is happening in the Middle East. Rather, the reality is that that re-emergence of regional politics in the Middle East along with Iran has led to instability in Israel’s power structure. Their plan to balkanize Syria has been failed almost, creating new windows for the northern front.

After the start of the civil war in Syria, Robert Fisk, a great scholar on Middle Eastern politics, made a prediction about the war in Syria a few years ago that the war in Syria would end against the plans of the West and Israel, and strong armed would emerge in Syria under the supervision of Russia and Iran. Today’s Middle Eastern equation is rotating in favor of Fisk's prediction. Besides, Iran, which is sponsored Hamas and Hezbollah, is building new Hezbollah forces in Iraq and Syria in the same process please, equipping them with targeted guided missiles, as well as building their own military bases in Iraq and Syria.  These has been Israel’s  biggest concerns so far. Their new thinking has filled by the way Turkey has become increasingly active in the past few years on Palestine and Jerusalem issues. As a result, scholars believe, the future politics of Israel and the Middle East the conflict will revolve mainly in the Turkey-Israel-Iran equations.

Badirujjaman 

Department of International Relations 

Jahangirnagar University.