Sino-India rivalry & Future of South Asian Geopolitics
Sino-India rivalry & Future of South Asian Geopolitics
Introduction:
India & China are neighboring countries in
Asia. Both of the countries have the largest population & military forces
in the world. They also have nuclear weapons. India & China have one of the
world’s longest disputed borders & areas which include 37,000 sq km of
uninhabited Aksai Chin & Arunachal Pradesh with 1.4 million residents &
over 84,000 sq km. The main reason of dispute between India & China is
their border which is known as Line of Actual Control (LAC). The LAC is the
demarcation that separates Indian-controlled territory from Chinese-controlled
territory. India considers the LAC to be 3,488 km long, while the Chinese
consider it to be only around 2,000 km. China
and India currently have three sectors in their border disputes: the eastern
(90,000 square kilometers in Arunachal), the middle (near Nepal), and the
western (33,000 square kilometers in Aksai Chin/Ladakh). Both countries
have engaged in confrontations but along the LAC
they were not allowed to use firearms under the previous Rules of Engagement
(RoE) between India and China that was signed in 1996 and 2005. The two sides
had also agreed not to use any blasting or firearms within two kilometers of
the LAC. However, the Indian Army has decided to change the rule after the
violent clash at the Galwan Valley in eastern Ladakh that claimed the lives of
20 of its troops, including a Colonel rank officer.
Background:
The bone of contention between India & China is
the McMahon Line, the frontier
between Tibet and Assam in British India, negotiated
between Tibet and Great Britain at the end of the Shimla Conference
1914 which is also internationally accepted as the border between India &
China in the eastern sector. The McMahon Line is regarded by India as the legal
national border, but China rejects the Simla Accord and the McMahon Line,
contending that Tibet was not a sovereign state and therefore did not have the
power to conclude treaties. Regarding this McMahon Line, China & India have
got involved into confrontations. China India war 1962, Arunachal standoff, 73
days of standoff at Doklam & the ongoing border standoff in Ladakh are some
of the major occurrences that sour the relation between India & China.
The Galwan crisis:
The latest crisis started on June 15 & it is claimed to be their
deadliest encounter in over 45 years. According to Indian authority, the
Chinese troops breached the LAC & set up Chinese tents & observation
towers on the Indian side at Galwan valley which is in Ladakh. After this both
sides have mobilized their forces escalating the border tensions. To
de-escalate the tensions, Military commanders from both sides sit in a meeting
on June 6. After this meeting, the Indian troops visited the area near a ridge
to verify the Chinese assertion whether the Chinese troops had moved back from
the LAC. The Chinese troops had thinned out, leaving behind two tents &
small observation post, which the Indian party demolished. A large group of
Chinese soldiers arrived & confronted the Indian troops using rocks, nail
studded baton, iron rods etc. This confrontation claimed lives of 20 Indian soldiers
leaving many wounded but China remains silent about its casualties, some
sources said that China may have lost at least 40 soldiers. China has occupied
the Galwan valley entering into 40 to 50 km of Indian border.
Reasons behind this crisis:
1. The
simplest explanation perhaps is that China is responding to India’s efforts to
bolster border area infrastructure in Ladakh after the completion of the
255 km long Durbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi (DSDBO) road. It connects Leh to the Karakoram Pass dividing Ladakh from China’s
Xinjiang province. Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) is 9 km away from the Line of
Actual Control (LAC) with China. The road runs parallel to the LAC &
near Aksai Chin, Chip Chap River and Jiwan Nalla & will help India to
deploy its troops faster. This road will give India much advantageous
position in Galwan valley which China considers as a strategic threat. Also the
western region of the DBO is where China abuts Pakistan in the Gilgit-Baltistan
area & China is constructing a China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in
the region. As this area is strategically important for China as well as
India, both countries want to make sure their presence. In doing so, the
ongoing crisis started.
2. Last year
the Indian parliament annulled article 370 of Indian constitution. Article 370
which gave Jammu & Kashmir a special status of semi autonomy & other
advantages. By annulling article 370, J&K was brought under central
government of India. Ladakh is a part of J&K but China claims Ladakh as a
part of Tibet which is very close to Xinjiang province. China has some internal
issues regarding these areas & wants to take control over this region.
China claims that India is providing shelter to many of its insurgents. After
invading Tibet, India gave shelter to a Tibetian leader Dalai Lama who is also
the head of Tibetian government in exile at Dharamshala in Himachal. China also
wants to eliminate assistance given to the Uyghur Muslim ethnic community
separatist movement. China fears that India sought to profit from the unrest in
Tibet & Xinjiang.
3. The
present state of relations between The USA & China is indicating another
cold war like situation in world politics. The trade war, Corona virus
pandemic, Hong Kong security law, arms selling to Taiwan, capturing the Huawei
officials, naval patrolling in Asia pacific by the USA with its allies have
deteriorated the USA china relations. The USA adopted a containment policy
against China in Asia & with its allies has
stepped up naval and air patrols over the South China sea and canceled joint
exercises with Beijing, While the relation between The USA & India
is getting closer day by day. Their strategic political relation was mainly
established to decline Chinese influence in the South Asian region. Also India
is a big buyer of the USA made weapons & participant to many US-led
military alliances which are quite disturbing facts for China on the way to
establish its dominance in Asia. By occupying
Galwan valley in Ladakh, China is delivering a political message to India not
to get too close to The USA.
4.
The current situation at border is mostly seen as a continuation of China’s post-pandemic “assertive foreign policy” across the world
and also as fallout of the overall souring of China-India ties in the recent
past. China is extending its rein in south East Asia through increasing its
military presence in South china sea. Through Chinese president Xi’s vision
‘Asia for Asians’ China wants to establish dominance in Asia. So the current
crisis in Ladakh is a part of china’s authoritative policy as it is
strategically important for China.
Reactions of neighborhood countries:
Bangladesh,
Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka are strategically important for
India & China. Both countries are trying to get closer to these countries.
If we review the current situation in South Asia, China is in the most
advantageous positions. Its economic aid & investments, duty free access of
products for the south Asian countries in its market have made its neighbor
closer than India. Also India’s dominating perspective towards its neighbors
act as a catalyst to worsen its relations with its neighbors. It seems that
Modi’s ‘Neighborhood first policy’ has failed.
Pakistan:
The
history of the relations between Pakistan & India is full of
confrontations. It is assumed that Pakistan is provoking China against India to
occupy Ladakh & J&K regarding revocation of article 370. The recent
incident of abducting two officials of Indian embassy in Pakistan &
complains brought by both countries of espionage of the embassy officials have
made their diplomatic relation worse. Both countries have expelled diplomats of
their counterpart.
Nepal:
Nepal
has objected to the Indian infrastructure of 80-kilometer
stretch from Dharchula to Lipulekh. Through this road India has moved its
frontier vis-a vis China, gaining direct access to the concrete highway in
Purang county in Tibet, and has thereby changed the status quo in the region.
The relation turned sour after Nepal’s national assembly passed the
controversial bill on its updated political administrative map which includes
parts of controversial territory, which India claims, escalating the border
dispute. The New Map Amendment Bill (coat of arms) refers to an updated map
which shows strategically important territories of Kalapani, Lipulekh &
Limpiyadhura as territories of Nepal. The Nepal government is constructing a
road from Darchula to Tinkar, also known Mahakali corridor near the India Nepal
border in Uttarakand minimizing the dependence of Nepalese citizens on Indian
roads. Nepal has also mobilized its troops in the border & an Indian BSF
soldier was killed by the Nepalese troops. Also in 2015, after two devastating earthquakes, India
imposed a blockade on its border with Nepal which
began on 23 September 2015, was an economic and humanitarian crisis severely
affecting Nepal and
its economy. This incident acted as a catalyst for souring Nepal India
relations.
Bangladesh:
Bangladesh’s position in this tension is
quite balanced as Bangladesh is trying to keep good terms with both of the
countries. Bangladesh did not join China’s belt & road initiative on the
request of India but on the other hand Bangladesh brought two submarines from
China on which India expressed its concern. Amid this situation, China has
granted duty free access of 5161 products which is 97% of Bangladeshi products
exported to China. Bangladesh is strategically important for both, India &
China as it is in the area of Bay of Bengal. China is a partner of Bangladesh
on various development projects & also provides loans for infrastructure
development in Bangladesh. On the contrary, India covers third-fourth of
Bangladeshi frontiers. So now Bangladesh has to act tactfully for keeping good
terms with its neighbors.
Bhutan:
Bhutan, India’s close ally, has stopped
irrigation water to some farmers in Assam. But a recent deal between India
& Bhutan has made Bhutan to be on the side of India. Recently during a virtual meeting of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) early
June, China raised objections to the grant issued for the Sakteng Wildlife
Sanctuary (SWS) in eastern Bhutan’s Trashigang district. It borders India and
China, and Beijing has now claimed that the location is disputed. Now it seems
clear that Bhutan will remain a close ally of India.
Sri Lanka:
Sri Lanka is also a strategic point for both, China &
India. China is a strategic investment partner to Sri. India’s controversial
role during Sri Lankan 30 year long civil war made India-Sri Lanka relation
less friendly & Sri Lanka leased Hambantota port
to China for 99 yrs. So it is clear that Sri Lanka is under the influence of
China.
Latest update:
The recent satellite photos show that China has entered more
than 423 meters into Galwan valley of Indian side & set up at least 16
tents & a camp & at least 14 cars are marked. Both countries are
mobilizing their forces. India is busy to prop up the support of anti Chinese
super power including Russia also. India is getting defensive instruments worth
of $100 crore from its Western allies France, Isreal & the USA. On the
contrary, China reinforced its troops near the Indian border with mountain
climbers & martial arts fighters. At least five new militia divisions
including former members of a Mount Everest Olympic torch relay team &
fighters from a mixed martial arts club presented themselves for inspection aat
Lhasa on June 15. A 3rd meeting between two countries at military
level is going be held to ease the situation.
Evaluation:
China after the Doklam crisis in 2017, considers India as the toughest
regional competitor or the biggest threat in the region to China’s rise. China
mainly concerned at the ongoing situation for the Indian construction of roads
& air strips in the Galwan valley which will provide better access to
Karakoram highway close to the LAC by India. China termed this as aggressive
& provocative & considers Indian road building as an attempt to stab it
in the back while China is trying to ease its deteriorated relations with the
USA due to the Covid-19 pandemic. China has changed its policy towards India
when the Indian government annulled article 370 of the constitution that
revoked the semi autonomous status of Jammu & Kashmir in which Ladakh is
also included. The reason behind this situation is to spread geo political
influence over this region by China. Although forces
of both countries are standing face to face & a war like situation exists
but there is no probability of war. As both countries is fighting against
Covid-19 pandemic & trying to cope up with the economic crisis due to the
pandemic. So right now they are not in a state to afford any direct war. Also both
of the countries are partners of BRICS & Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Conclusion:
The recent fist fighting brawl between India & china that
also is going on amid a tense pinch for the Asian other than world people as
both countries massively populated with atomic power race who are along with
enriched in extremely developed weapons to face one another in the midst of
covid 19 pandemic, also both of them are acutely gripped in many other internal
crisis other than dealing with Corona virus & domestic troubles. Both of
the countries are trying to reach a solution by holding meetings. Their rivalry
is affecting the neighborhood countries. Although, there is no possibility of
war, there remains a tense situation what will happen next. In both sides,
people are asking their respective goals for avoiding war.
Name: Jannat Sultana
E-Mail
address:
Sultanajannat2000@gmail.com
Batch: 46th
Dept:
International Relations, Jahangirnagar University.
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