Who will Solve Sri Lankan Current Turmoils?
In a
last few days, there was a paradigm shift approaching in Sri Lankan political
turmoil. It is thought that this incident would create a new chapter in the
modern political history of Sri Lanka. Such large popular insurgence and
violent mobilization were unfortunate for literate country like Sri Lanka. Indian
external relations minister Jay Shankar expressed the current situation in Sri
Lanka is very intense.
This political crisis has been created over some times. But Sri Lankans themselves have to overcome from the crisis. We, Bangladesh, always be their (Sri Lankans) bigger collaborator and supporter. But It is only Sri Lanka that has to find a path to overcome from such political disaster. In the meanwhile, Indian government provided a huge loan to Sri Lanka and observe the country’s fragile conditions very well. But significantly, even Indian government also wants Sri Lankans themselves to tackle turmoil situations.
Meanwhile, a pro and counter narratives floating
over the question “Who will be next
President of Sri Lanka?” several names come forward including present
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, Dales Alahaperuma (MP from SLPP) and Sajid
Premadesha (Opposition leader of Sri Lankan Assembly). In 20th July,
2022, there will be a voting session in Sri Lankan Assembly on Presidential selection.
Here, major portion of SLPP is supporter of Ranil Wickremesinghe, other portion
campaign for Dales Alahaperuma. Earlier, political party SJB declared Sajid Premadesha
as their president candidates. Among three who will obtain more votes will be appointed
as the interim president of Sri Lanka as per the Speaker of Sri Lankan Assembly.
But, it is obvious that the new presidency won’t
radically changed the fragile political environment of Sri Lanka. Because, now Sri
Lanka affected with two mega problems: economic collapse and political disturbance.
Experts emphasized political solutions over economy, as the political instability
rather delay the way of economic solvency.
Besides political parties counter- consensus, popular
insurgency become a concerning issues in Sri Lanka. Energy crisis has reached at
the worst
position than any other periods. For minimizing this problem, the government needed
both time and support. But the way popular insurgency stormed into Presidential
and Prime Minister’s Office and Palace, fired on Prime Minister’s vehicles- all
of the incidents are truly criticized and unfortunate.
We witnessed
many countries in the world collapsed economically and attained recovery from there.
For example, economic crisis of the United Kingdom in 1976; Argentina and Greece
also recovered them soon; and even the USA is also geared herself up from
2008-09 economic crisis. But some portions of Sri Lankan people are not care about
such successful recovery history rather spread their violent mobilization countrywide.
Besides
political miscalculations of Gotabaye Rajapaksa government, some global issues like
Covid-19 and Ukrainian crisis affected Sri Lankan economy in a great extent. Moreover,
as their reserved money was reduced so rapidly that they declared themselves a “Bankrupt”.
They become unable to pay the compound interests of foreign debt. The size of debt
was larger than country’s total GDP. Almost 47% of debt has come from international
stock markets and other sources. ADB is Sri Lankan the biggest loan provider
(13% out of 47%), both China and Japan provided 10% of their external debts, the
World Bank gave 9% of loan, and India with others provided the other portions of
debt.
So it is not wise to define one state debt as trap
for Sri Lanka, rather all the sadness are mainly connected to political and economic
miscalculating of Gotabaya government. But it is true that like Greece and Argentina
crisis, international community has been less engaged in solving Sri Lankan problems.
Might there be a geopolitical equation among the powers over Sri Lanka position.
China has developed both Hambantota port and its region under their BRI project.
Both the USA and India have the same strategic interests incorporating Sri
Lanka, but the Rajapaksa government's pro-Chinese policy make these big powers stand
still rather than helping Sri Lanka, as the country’s economy is very small as
well as their debt.
Gotabaye's
government was in wrong track identified by IMF in 2020 and it predicted that Sri
Lankan government has not fully comply with lenders conditions that would ultimately
accelerate economic degradation in Sri Lanka. But the existing government didn’t
take the prediction seriously. Even in Covid period the government wasn’t success
in their strategy, they declared lockdown for a longer periods that destroyed their
Tourism sector as well as their Tea Industries. Even the government lowered the
taxes and introduced artificial agriculture system that resulted a great crisis
on Sri Lankan domestic economy.
However,
the world community must overlook the current crisis in Sri Lanka and help to find
a path of its recovery. But before that Sri
Lankan socio-political stability is obligatory. Though the majoritarian of Sri Lankan
Assembly is still belong to Gotabaya faction that would question the effectiveness
of political consensus. Only political collaboration among parties facilitated their
chances to get new foreign loan and aid. Thus how Sri Lanka can return to their
minimum economic solvency.
Besides, both neighboring and regional power like India agreed on helping Sri Lanka. As China has incorporated with Sri Lankan development, She should have helped Sri Lanka also. But more than international community, it is on Sri Lankan how they rapidly stabilize their political environment. So in this crisis management, Sri Lankan needs positive collaboration from both internal and external dimensions.
অনুবাদকঃ বদিরুজ্জামান
(বাংলা থেকে ইংরেজি)
মুল
লেখকঃ
ড. দেলোয়ার হোসেন: অধ্যাপক, আন্তর্জাতিক সম্পর্ক বিভাগ, ঢাকা বিশ্ববিদ্যালয়; প্রেষণে পাবলিক সার্ভিস কমিশনের (পিএসসি) সদস্য হিসেবে নিয়োজিত
No comments